Dodik declares party victory in Bosnia election as ally leads presidency race

Milorad Dodik, a Bosnian Serb politician, declared victory for his party in Bosnia and Herzegovina's general election on Sunday, the Guardian and the South China Morning Post (SCMP) reported. Dodik himself was not on the ballot. The reports reviewed by Vocemundi do not include final or certified results, and all figures are partial counts.

With nearly 90% of votes counted, Dodik's ally Željka Cvijanović of the Alliance of Independent Social Democrats had more than 55% of the vote for one of the three seats on the presidency, both outlets reported. She led her nearest opponent by about 30 percentage points. The reports do not name that opponent.

Dodik is a former president of Republika Srpska, Bosnia's Serb-majority entity. He was banned from holding public office after being convicted last year of defying decisions by the international envoy overseeing the 1995 peace agreement. The reports do not name the envoy or give details of the conviction.

Dodik credited US President Donald Trump's 2024 election victory and Russian President Vladimir Putin's support for the result, both outlets reported.

Other races, as reported

According to the Guardian, with more than 94% of votes counted, Darijana Filipović of the Croatian Democratic Union of Bosnia and Herzegovina held a commanding lead for the Croat seat. The incumbent Bosniak member, Denis Bećirović of the Social Democratic party, led his nearest opponent, Bakir Izetbegović, by fewer than three percentage points. The reports do not give vote shares for these two races.

The Guardian reported that about 3.4 million voters were eligible. It said the central election commission counted 1,432,269 votes cast, a turnout of 42%, down by about 8% from 2022. It is unclear whether that means percentage points or a relative decline.

What each side says

• Milorad Dodik: The Guardian, which reported that he spoke at a news conference late on Sunday, quoted him as referring to a "magnificent victory" and saying: "No one should ask us to change our politics". He also said his party would hold a "vast majority" in Republika Srpska's assembly. The reports do not include results for that assembly. At a rally in Banja Luka on Friday, he told supporters that Bosnia "is dead", the Guardian reported.
• Darijana Filipović: Declared victory in the Croat race before all votes were counted, according to the Guardian.
• Denis Bećirović: Declared victory in the Bosniak race before all votes were counted, according to the Guardian.

What is not known

The reports do not include results for the national parliament. They do not include any response from Izetbegović or other opponents, or say whether anyone has conceded. They also do not include reactions from the election commission, the international envoy, the European Union, the United States or Russia.

The overlapping passages in the Guardian and SCMP are nearly identical, and most details here rest on the Guardian alone.

Analysis

If the partial counts hold, Dodik's party would keep a seat on the state presidency even though he is barred from office. That could mean he retains political influence without a formal post, though the reports do not show how much. His claim of a large majority in Republika Srpska's assembly cannot be assessed without figures. The Bosniak race is the least settled, with a margin of fewer than three percentage points and votes still uncounted. Final results could confirm the early declarations or change them. Reactions from opponents and international actors, which the reports do not include, may shape what follows.

Produced by the Vocemundi newsroom with AI assistance.