UN report: current emissions pledges put world on course for 2.6°C of warming

A new report by the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) says current global commitments to cut greenhouse gas emissions fall far short of the Paris Agreement goals. The report puts the world on course for 2.6°C of warming this century. France 24 and Daily Sabah both reported these findings.

The report was released ahead of the COP31 UN climate summit, scheduled for November 2026 in Turkey.

Key findings, as reported

According to Daily Sabah, the report is UNEP's annual Emissions Gap Report and was released on Wednesday, 21 October 2026. Most of the detailed figures below appear only in Daily Sabah's coverage.

• Even if countries deliver their latest pledges in full, temperatures could rise 2.6°C above preindustrial levels by 2100. Continuing current policies would mean 2.8°C.
• The report says any chance of meeting the 1.5°C target has been lost after decades of insufficient action.
• The world has already warmed by roughly 1.4°C. Crossing 1.5°C is expected within years.
• Global emissions in 2025 were broadly on par with the record levels of 2024. Emissions from coal, oil and gas rose slightly.
• The G20 accounts for three-quarters of global emissions. Emissions growth slowed among members, but the report calls the United States a "major exception."
• Preliminary 2025 data show increases in the United States, Indonesia and China, and decreases in India, Russia and the European Union.
• US emissions rose by 133 megatons of CO2 equivalent. The report says this "far exceeded" any other country's increase. Higher electricity demand and a rebound in coal power drove the rise.
• Turkey, the COP31 host, recorded the next-largest increase.

The report also describes a scenario with a 50% chance of returning warming to 1.5°C by 2100. Warming would peak around 1.8°C by 2050. Large amounts of CO2 would need to be removed, and emissions cut by 6% a year until 2035. Daily Sabah describes that pace as far from current projections.

Daily Sabah also reported that US President Donald Trump has called climate change a hoax, rolled back clean energy policies and boosted fossil fuel production. COP31 will take place in Antalya from 9 to 20 November, according to the outlet, which expects a confrontation there over the 1.5°C target.

The reports reviewed by Vocemundi do not include responses from the US or Turkish governments. They do not give uncertainty ranges for the projections.

What each side says

In a statement launching the report, UN Secretary-General António Guterres said: "The world can no longer avoid overshooting the 1.5-C limit, and the consequences are already devastating." He said "all countries, especially the big emitters, must do more," but that overshooting 1.5°C "is not surrender," Daily Sabah reported.

UNEP Executive Secretary Inger Andersen told reporters that no country is shielded from climate change, including the United States, according to Daily Sabah.

Report co-author Anne Olhoff said the outlook is worse than last year's because of the formal US withdrawal from the Paris Agreement and upward revisions of historical emissions.

Mohamed Adow of Power Shift Africa said, according to Daily Sabah: "This is a historic failure of political leadership." Some climate-vulnerable developing nations have accused larger emitters of abandoning the Paris goals, the outlet reported, without naming them.

Analysis

The report frames COP31 around a gap between pledges and the Paris goals. Delegates may focus on strengthening national plans, on how to manage a temperature overshoot, or on the role of carbon removal. The findings on rising US and Turkish emissions could shape debate, as the host country and the second-largest emitter both feature in the data. Neither government's response appears in the reports reviewed. Most detailed figures come from one outlet. The projections are also stated without uncertainty ranges. Readers may wish to consult the full UNEP report before drawing firm conclusions.

Produced by the Vocemundi newsroom with AI assistance.