UNHCR says nearly 90 million displaced people live in climate-exposed countries ahead of COP31

The UN refugee agency, UNHCR, said nearly 90 million forcibly displaced people live in countries exposed to climate-related hazards. These hazards include droughts, floods and extreme heat. The agency issued its warning ahead of the COP31 climate summit.

The figure is UNHCR's own. France 24 and Reuters both reported it, but neither report describes any independent verification.

What UNHCR reported

According to UNHCR as reported by France 24, the nearly 90 million people represent three-quarters of the world's forcibly displaced population. France 24 said COP31 will take place in Turkey and is days away.

France 24 also reported these UNHCR findings:

• More than two-thirds of refugees who returned home during the first half of this year went back to countries highly vulnerable to climate hazards.
• Nearly four million displaced people have recently returned to Syria, where declining groundwater and climate shocks threaten recovery.
• Flooding along the Euphrates River last May damaged homes and displaced thousands of people again.
• By 2050, one in three refugee settlements across sub-Saharan Africa could face 100 or more days of dangerous heat each year.
• Weather-related disasters caused more than 255 million internal displacements worldwide over the past decade, or 70,000 each day.
• Only 10 percent of global climate finance goes to fragile and conflict-affected countries hosting large populations of climate-exposed displaced people.

El Nino forecasts

According to France 24, this year's El Nino was expected to cause further displacement. The outlet described the phenomenon as exceptionally strong. It also said forecasts indicate that severe flooding linked to El Nino could displace up to three million people across Somalia, Kenya, South Sudan and Uganda by the end of 2026. The report does not name who produced the forecasts.

What each side says

According to Reuters, UNHCR said more funding is needed to help vulnerable communities adapt. According to France 24, the agency said climate change is increasingly threatening the prospect of lasting solutions for displaced people. France 24 also reported that UNHCR will call on governments and climate finance institutions during COP31 to include displaced populations in national climate plans and financing mechanisms.

"Refugees face a double injustice," Anton Leis Garcia, UNHCR assistant high commissioner for operations, said in a statement quoted by France 24. "Forced to flee conflicts they did not cause, they are now on the frontlines of a climate crisis they have contributed least to."

The reports reviewed by Vocemundi do not include responses from governments, climate finance institutions or independent experts.

What the reports do not include

The reports do not give UNHCR's methodology or list the countries behind the 90 million figure. France 24 describes these countries as highly exposed, while Reuters says increasingly exposed. The reports do not establish whether this difference reflects UNHCR's wording. Only a brief summary of Reuters' report was available to Vocemundi.

Analysis

UNHCR's figures seek to bring displaced people into climate finance discussions at COP31. Whether governments and finance institutions will respond is unclear. They could include displaced populations in national plans and funding mechanisms, or the request could compete with other priorities. Living in an exposed country also does not by itself show how severely a person is affected or that climate caused their displacement. The agency's methodology, its list of countries and the data behind the 10 percent finance figure would help readers judge the scale of the problem. They could also inform assessments of any response.

Produced by the Vocemundi newsroom with AI assistance.