US intelligence memo warns Iranian plots against Americans have reached 'advanced stages'

A US intelligence memo warns that Iran has increased efforts to target US personnel. It says lethal plots against Americans have reached "advanced stages". Reuters says it has seen the memo. Axios first reported it, and The New York Times also reported on it.

A senior intelligence official in the Trump administration wrote the memo. Reuters does not name the official. Al Jazeera, citing Axios, identifies him as Director of National Intelligence Jay Clayton. According to the same report, the memo was sent to Secretary of State Marco Rubio. Al Jazeera, citing Axios, quotes it as saying Iran has "substantially increased efforts to target US personnel".

According to Al Jazeera, the memo says the plots have reached advanced stages in the Middle East and in other countries. Al Jazeera also reports that a US official cited by The New York Times confirmed the memo's authenticity. According to Al Jazeera, Washington had not publicly commented on the memo.

Al Jazeera, citing The New York Times, reports further claims from unnamed US officials. They say threats to US officials, including ambassadors, were assessed in recent weeks. They say Iran has lined up potential targets in Europe. They also say some intelligence indicates Iranian operatives are already active inside the US. The reports do not detail this last claim.

The same officials say Iranian threats to US citizens in the Middle East are "at the highest level" since the US-Israel war on Iran began on 28 February. According to Al Jazeera, this assessment is behind recent US moves to withdraw staff from the region.

According to Al Jazeera, the State Department announced on Wednesday that it was removing non-essential staff from its embassy in Saudi Arabia. It cited escalating Houthi attacks on Saudi infrastructure. CNN, as cited by Al Jazeera, reports staff reductions at US embassies in the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, Jordan and Lebanon. According to Al Jazeera, the Pentagon has confirmed that 21 US military personnel have been killed in the Middle East since the war began.

Al Jazeera, citing Reuters, reports that Tehran has plans to target undersea communications cables in the Gulf if the US and Israel launch new attacks. The Reuters item reviewed by Vocemundi does not include this detail.

What is disputed

US officials quoted in the reports differ on Iran's capacity to carry out attacks. The reports also do not establish whether the staff reductions are driven mainly by the Iranian threat or by Houthi attacks.

What each side says

• One US official cited by The New York Times says Houthi attacks and "Iranian terror plots targeting US officials" are driving staffing decisions.
• Another US official says Iran's ability to attack inside the US and elsewhere is limited.
• US President Donald Trump said the US "may do another little epic fury", according to Al Jazeera.
• IRGC spokesman Hossein Mohebbi says Iran would adopt an "offensive" strategy if the US renews attacks.
• Iranian security chief Mohsen Rezaei says cables, data centres and AI facilities across the region could be attacked if war resumes.

The reports do not include any Iranian response to the memo.

Analysis

The memo adds to a pattern of US concern about Iranian targeting of officials. Past cases include a 2022 charge against an IRGC member over an alleged plot against John Bolton. Al Jazeera also reports a US conviction in March over a plot against Trump. Without the memo's full text or underlying evidence, the scale of the threat is hard to assess independently. Officials also differ on Iran's capabilities. Possible scenarios range from further diplomatic drawdowns to renewed military action, which Al Jazeera reports is being planned. Statements from both governments suggest risks to infrastructure and personnel could rise if hostilities resume.

Produced by the Vocemundi newsroom with AI assistance.