Labour's Sagal Abdi-Wali wins Holborn and St Pancras, defeating Green leader Zack Polanski

Labour candidate Sagal Abdi-Wali has won the Holborn and St Pancras parliamentary by-election. She received 12,292 votes. Green Party leader Zack Polanski received 8,928. The Green Party conceded defeat. After the result, Polanski said he would stay on as party leader.

The by-election filled the seat vacated by former prime minister Keir Starmer, who stood down as an MP in September. Andy Burnham succeeded Starmer as prime minister. The contest was described as his first major electoral test. Labour had been widely expected to hold the seat. The Greens have fallen back in national polls since Burnham became prime minister.

According to the Guardian, Abdi-Wali took just over 45% of the vote and Polanski just under 33%. The Conservatives finished third with 7.1%, Reform UK fourth and the Liberal Democrats fifth. The Guardian put turnout at 38.7%, the lowest for any by-election in England during this parliament, and 15.4% down from 2024. The reports do not say whether that fall is in percentage points or relative terms. The Guardian described the seat as having been overwhelmingly Labour since its creation in 1983.

The Hindu reported that Abdi-Wali leads the local council. In her victory speech, she paid tribute to Starmer and said she wanted to work with Burnham on issues such as housing, according to The Hindu. The newspaper quoted her as saying: "Throughout our campaign, we chose hope, and the people of Holborn and St. Pancras chose it with us. And now it's time to deliver."

The vote followed a Green conference the previous weekend. Members passed a "Zionism is racism" motion that drew criticism, including from most of the party's MPs. Polanski did not take part in the debate or vote. According to the Guardian, four of the party's five MPs oppose the motion, and a handful of councillors have resigned.

What is disputed

Polanski and his team said the Greens tripled their vote share, according to the Guardian. Polling expert Peter Kellner, a former YouGov president, called this technically correct but seriously misleading. In a Substack blog quoted by the Guardian, he wrote: "This is an example of “paltering”, a useful, underused word for a statement that is technically correct but seriously misleading." The reports do not give the 2024 Green baseline.

What each side says

Polanski called it the party's second-best ever by-election result. The Guardian quoted him as telling Sky News: "I think the idea that this is some shine coming off me, or some difficulty, I think is overblown." He called the motion "imperfect" and said he would have voted to amend it. Some Green members called his absence from the debate a failure of leadership, according to the Guardian. His allies noted that Nigel Farage took eight attempts to become an MP. The reports do not include any reaction from Burnham or Labour headquarters.

Analysis

The result gives Labour a held seat in Burnham's first major test, while leaving open how durable Green support is. Supporters of each party read the same figures differently: the Greens point to a larger vote share, while Kellner frames the outcome as a historic Labour win. Low turnout limits how far the result can be read as a national signal. The internal row over the conference motion may shape debate before Polanski's leadership term ends in about a year, according to the Guardian. Whether Green criticism of Labour policy gains traction, or Labour's position strengthens, will depend on future polls and elections.

Produced by the Vocemundi newsroom with AI assistance.