New poll shows close Brazil run-off race; Bolsonaro narrowly ahead, Al Jazeera reports

A new opinion poll on Brazil's presidential run-off shows a close race between Senator Flavio Bolsonaro and President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva. Al Jazeera and Anadolu Agency both reported a new poll pointing to a tight contest. Their framing differs. Al Jazeera's headline says Bolsonaro is "maintaining edge". Anadolu Agency's headline describes a "narrowing race". Anadolu's report, available only as a headline, does not identify the poll or give figures.

The polls

According to Al Jazeera, a CNT/MDA survey released on Friday, 16 October, gave Bolsonaro 46.8 percent and Lula 45.9 percent. A Quaest poll released a day earlier gave Bolsonaro 46 percent and Lula 44 percent, Al Jazeera reported. A Datafolha poll gave Bolsonaro 47 percent and Lula 45 percent, according to the same report. Bolsonaro's Datafolha figure was down from 49 percent a week earlier.

Al Jazeera reports that all three polls fall within a 2 percent margin of error. It also reports that, a month earlier, Lula had been projected to win easily.

The reports reviewed by Vocemundi do not include sample sizes, fieldwork dates, survey methods or confidence levels for the three polls. They do not include Lula's previous Datafolha figure or earlier CNT/MDA and Quaest figures. The trend therefore cannot be fully assessed.

Background

According to Al Jazeera, the run-off is scheduled for 25 October. In the first round on 4 October, Bolsonaro received the most votes of any candidate: 56,104,503, against 53,879,538 for Lula. The reports do not give full first-round results or turnout.

Flavio Bolsonaro, 42, is the son of former President Jair Bolsonaro, Al Jazeera reports. It describes him as closely aligned with US President Donald Trump. According to Al Jazeera, Jair Bolsonaro is barred from running for re-election until 2030. An electoral court ruled he abused his authority to cast doubt on the 2022 election. He is under house arrest while serving a 27-year sentence connected to efforts to overturn that election, which he lost to Lula.

Lula, 80, is seeking a fourth, non-consecutive term and has been holding regular rallies, according to Al Jazeera. On Wednesday, Brazil's Congress approved an amendment giving workers two paid days off a week instead of one. Al Jazeera describes this as one of Lula's top social reform promises. The reports do not say whether further steps are needed before it takes effect.

What each side says

According to Al Jazeera, Bolsonaro has pledged a crackdown on crime and drug trafficking. He has also pledged to "cleave" taxes used to pay for government programmes. Al Jazeera's report gives no further detail on this pledge.

Many experts still consider the race a toss-up because the polls fall within the margin of error, according to Al Jazeera. The report does not name these experts.

The reports do not include any response from either campaign to the poll results.

Analysis

The figures point to a contest that remains open. Because each poll's lead falls within the reported margin of error, the numbers are consistent with either candidate winning. All specific figures come from a single outlet, Al Jazeera, and the reports lack methodological detail, so readers should treat them with caution. One possible scenario is that the first-round edge for Bolsonaro holds; another is that Lula gains ground. Recent policy moves, such as the days-off amendment, could matter to some voters, but the reports do not show any measured effect on voting intentions.

Produced by the Vocemundi newsroom with AI assistance.