COP31 UN climate summit opens in Türkiye amid forecasts of near-record 2026 heat

The COP31 UN climate summit opened in Türkiye on Monday, 9 November 2026, according to Anadolu Agency and BBC News.

According to BBC News, the summit is being held in the city of Antalya. Countries will negotiate for two weeks. BBC News reported that leaders attending this week include a UK prime minister it names as Andy Burnham. The reports do not give the number of delegations or a full list of leaders.

Anadolu Agency's headline describes the summit as opening amid calls for stronger action. Its report does not say who made those calls.

The climate backdrop

According to BBC News, the UN's World Meteorological Organization (WMO) published a report on Monday. The report forecasts that 2026 will be among the four warmest years on record. It also says an unusually powerful El Niño will continue into 2027 and push temperatures higher.

BBC News also reported that the EU's Copernicus climate service confirmed on Friday that October was the hottest October on record. According to BBC News, the world is on track for 2.8C of warming above pre-industrial levels by 2100. That is above the 1.5C goal of the Paris Agreement.

BBC News quoted Dr Robert Rohde of Berkeley Earth as saying: "We have had a run of record warm years."

What is disputed

The forecasts differ on how certain it is that 2026 will set a new record. According to BBC News, Berkeley Earth, an independent US research group, is 95% confident that 2026 will surpass 2024 as the hottest year. BBC News describes the WMO forecast as more cautious. The two forecasts differ in degree and do not directly contradict each other.

What each side says

• Türkiye (host): According to BBC News, the Turkish government wants talks to focus on a new electrification goal and on cutting waste levels.
• European Union: According to early drafts seen by BBC News, the EU would back an electrification goal only if countries could not meet the target using gas. An EU memo said: "It is important that progress on electrification is underpinned by clean energy sources."
• Saudi Arabia and Russia: According to BBC News, both have previously pushed for gas as an interim alternative to coal.
• United Kingdom: BBC News says it understands the UK government is reluctant to set new goals and wants to focus on existing agreements.
• Simon Stiell, UN climate chief: BBC News reported remarks he was expected to deliver: "No single COP is a silver bullet." The reports do not describe whether he delivered them.
• Celeste Saulo, WMO Secretary-General: According to BBC News, she said she could not explain past failures to agree, and sees the impacts in "more extreme events".

The reports do not include positions from developing countries, small island states, China, India or the United States.

Analysis

The early positions reported by BBC News suggest that the role of gas could be a central point of negotiation. Türkiye's reported electrification goal, the EU's reported conditions and the stance previously taken by Saudi Arabia and Russia point in different directions. The UK's reported preference for implementing existing commitments adds another view. Outcomes could range from a new goal to a reaffirmation of current agreements. The temperature forecasts may shape the tone of the talks, but they do not determine what governments agree. Many major parties' positions are absent from the reports reviewed.

Produced by the Vocemundi newsroom with AI assistance.