Parti Québécois projected to win Quebec election, reviving independence referendum question

Canadian media projected that the Parti Québécois (PQ) won Quebec's provincial election on 5 October 2026 and will form the next provincial government. BBC, AP and SCMP cite projections or predictions by Canadian media, including The Canadian Press and public broadcaster CBC. The Japan Times reports the win as fact. The reports reviewed by Vocemundi do not include official results, seat counts, vote shares or turnout.

The result makes PQ leader Paul St-Pierre Plamondon the incoming premier. It returns the PQ to power for the first time in more than a decade. BBC says it is the first time since 2014.

The PQ has promised another referendum on Quebec independence. According to BBC, Quebec held earlier referendums in 1980 and 1995. Polling cited by BBC and analysts cited by The Guardian indicate that most Quebecers do not support independence. BBC reports that about 30% back it.

St-Pierre Plamondon has proposed defunding the office of the lieutenant-governor, the Crown's representative in Quebec, and ending the province's ties with the monarchy. He has also opposed federal immigration increases under Prime Minister Mark Carney.

According to BBC, Canadian media projected a minority government. SCMP and The Japan Times report the PQ win as fact, though SCMP said it was not yet clear whether the party would control a legislative majority. BBC also reports that the Quebec Liberal Party won the second-most seats and the Quebec Conservative Party gained seats.

Outgoing Premier Christine Fréchette conceded her own race in Trois-Rivières shortly before 22:00 local time, according to BBC. BBC quoted her as saying: "Governing Quebec is the greatest honour I have ever had." The Coalition Avenir Québec chose Fréchette to replace François Legault as leader, according to BBC. The Guardian reports that Legault resigned early this year.

The vote took place during a trade dispute between Canada and the United States, including US tariffs. Carney remains popular in Quebec. BBC reports his support there dipped after new US tariffs in August. It cites Oxford Economics projecting that tariffs will cost Quebec about C$2bn.

The reports do not include a statement by St-Pierre Plamondon after the result.

What is disputed

Accounts of the referendum's timing differ. BBC and SCMP report that St-Pierre Plamondon said it would take place after President Donald Trump leaves office. BBC infers this likely means 2029 or 2030. The Guardian reports a pledge of a vote within two years or during a first PQ mandate. The same report says he later ruled one out while Trump is in power. The Japan Times reports a pledge to hold one during his four-year term.

What each side says

St-Pierre Plamondon told reporters in late September, according to BBC: "We are going to do what we have to do to get the monarchy out of Quebec, repatriate those funds, and send them to social causes." The Guardian reports he called a federal immigration increase an "abuse of power".

Carney congratulated him in a social media post, according to BBC. BBC quoted the post: "Building a stronger Québec is core to our mission of building a stronger Canada."

Poll analyst Philippe Fournier, quoted by The Guardian, said the PQ was "benefiting from a massive vote split".

Analysis

The projected result raises questions that the reports reviewed by Vocemundi leave open. Whether the PQ holds a majority or a minority will shape how far it can advance its programme. On independence, polling cited by BBC shows support around 30%, and the timing of any referendum remains unclear. The plan on the lieutenant-governor's office could lead to legal disputes with Ottawa. BBC suggests this could affect royal assent to Quebec laws. Carney's pledge to cooperate on tariffs and housing points to possible areas of agreement. Other issues, such as immigration and the monarchy, may produce friction. Outcomes will depend on official results and on decisions not yet announced.

Produced by the Vocemundi newsroom with AI assistance.