Brazil's presidential election heads to 25 October runoff after Flávio Bolsonaro finishes ahead of Lula

Update (5 Oct 2026): Brazil's presidential election will go to a runoff on 25 October after Flávio Bolsonaro finished ahead of President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in the first round and neither passed 50% of valid votes. Partial counts put Bolsonaro at about 47% and Lula at about 44-45%, and right-wing candidates made gains in congress.

Brazilians voted on Sunday, 4 October 2026, in the first round of a presidential election. Senator Flávio Bolsonaro, 45, son of former president Jair Bolsonaro, finished ahead of President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, 80, who is seeking a fourth non-consecutive term.

Neither won the more than 50% of valid votes needed for an outright victory, so the two will meet in a runoff on 25 October. The Hindu attributes the announcement to Brazil's electoral authority.

Nearly 159 million voters were also choosing 27 state governors, state legislators, all 513 members of the lower house of congress and 54 of the 81 senators, according to the Guardian and France 24. Right-wing candidates made gains in the congressional elections, particularly in the Senate.

Jair Bolsonaro is serving a 27-year sentence in connection with a coup plot after the 2022 election, which he lost to Lula by less than two percentage points. Flávio Bolsonaro has campaigned on freeing his father. DW reports he has vowed to pardon him if elected.

What is reported

All first-round figures are partial counts:

• The Guardian gave Bolsonaro 47.1% and Lula 45% with more than 99% counted.
• Fox News gave 47.2% to 44.9% with 99% counted.
• NPR gave over 47% to 44% with over 98% counted.
• The Hindu gave 47.45% to 44.66% of valid votes with just over 97% counted.

Bolsonaro's result exceeded what opinion polls had indicated, according to the Guardian, Fox News and The Hindu. A Quaest poll cited by Reuters before the vote had put Lula at 46% and Bolsonaro at 45% in the first round, according to DW. According to The Hindu, analysts told Reuters they believed Bolsonaro was receiving protest votes from people voting against Lula, which had been expected only in a second round.

Twelve candidates contested the race. Other right-wing candidates trailed far behind the top two, and outlets describe their voters as a potential pool for Bolsonaro in the runoff. The Guardian reports that Ronaldo Caiado won 2.1% and Renan Santos 2.2%. Fox News reports that Augusto Cury, Renan Santos, Ronaldo Caiado and Romeu Zema together received nearly 8%. NPR reports that the candidates who placed third, fourth and fifth are all right-wing.

Fox News reports that Bolsonaro led Lula 52% to 38% in São Paulo state, 48% to 43% in Minas Gerais and 53% to 39% in Rio de Janeiro state, while Lula won Bahia, Pernambuco and Ceará by large margins.

Members of the Bolsonaro family won seats, according to the Guardian and Fox News. Jair Bolsonaro's wife, Michelle, and his son Carlos were elected to the Senate, and his son Jair Renan was elected to the lower house. The Guardian reports that 34 of the 54 senators elected were from the right or far right. Fox News reports that Bolsonaro's Liberal Party is expected to hold 29 Senate seats, compared with 9 for Lula's Workers' Party. The Guardian also reports that Tarcísio de Freitas, a former infrastructure minister under Jair Bolsonaro, was re-elected governor of São Paulo.

The winner is due to take office on 5 January 2027, according to the Guardian.

Flávio Bolsonaro has faced accusations over millions of dollars received from a banker for a film about his father's life, according to France 24 and The Hindu. The Hindu reports that the federal police are investigating him for money laundering tied to the Banco Master case. It says Daniel Vorcaro, who ran the now-defunct bank, was arrested earlier this year and accused of a multibillion-dollar fraud scheme. DW earlier reported that the investigation concerns alleged corruption, money laundering and tax evasion. The Guardian reported that Bolsonaro was recorded asking a banker for $26.8m to fund the film. The Hindu also reports that the Banco Master investigation has probed the banker's ties to Supreme Court Justice Alexandre de Moraes.

The Guardian reported that Lula's campaign has been hit by corruption allegations, still under investigation, involving his son and a former aide. The reports give no details of those allegations.

The Trump administration imposed high tariffs on Brazilian exports, revoked the visa of Brazil's ambassador and sanctioned the Supreme Court justice who chaired the investigation that led to Jair Bolsonaro's sentence, according to France 24. DW puts the tariff rate at 50% and says it was imposed last year in response to Jair Bolsonaro's coup trial.

According to The Hindu, Reuters reported that Brazilian intelligence officials briefed a French and German delegation on alleged U.S. and Russian interference before the election. The Hindu also reports that both leading candidates skipped the major TV debates.

What is disputed

• Jair Bolsonaro's custody: The Guardian and France 24 describe him as in prison or jailed. NPR says he is serving his sentence under house arrest.
• Flávio Bolsonaro's office: France 24, NPR, Fox News, The Hindu and AP describe him as a senator. The Guardian's live results page calls him a former senator from Rio de Janeiro.
• Pre-vote polls: Fox News says the vast majority of polls showed Lula with a single-digit lead and that he had widely been expected to win the first round. The Guardian says Bolsonaro seemed to have momentum in the final days and that there was no clear leader in runoff polling. The title of a linked France 24 item described the two as tied.
• Trump's backing: Fox News describes Bolsonaro as a Trump-backed candidate. The Hindu says Trump has not formally endorsed a candidate, though he hosted Bolsonaro at the White House and praised him publicly.

What each side says

Lula said he had been convinced he would win in the first round. "We have just had a lesson in Brazilian democracy," the Guardian quoted him as saying. He said a new two-candidate campaign would show the difference between the proposals and that Bolsonaro's "dark past" would become clearer to voters. He accuses the United States and Trump of trying to interfere in the election, according to the Guardian and NPR.

Flávio Bolsonaro called Lula's time in office an "era of backwardness". "I'm more than ready to lead this country and to give Brazilian families the right to dream once again," the Guardian quoted him as saying. He promises a crackdown on criminal groups and closer ties with the Trump administration. He denies his campaign received help from the US government. He denies wrongdoing in the Banco Master case, while confirming he raised millions of dollars from Daniel Vorcaro for a film about his father, according to The Hindu.

The United States rejects claims that it interfered in Brazil's election. NPR attributes the denial to the U.S. State Department.

Lula's allies warned that the Trump administration might refuse to recognise the results if Lula wins, pointing to an aborted effort to send U.S. officials to Brazil.

According to Fox News, the Brazilian right and the Bolsonaro camp have long alleged that the leading pollsters produce work biased in favour of Lula and the Workers' Party.

Electoral court chief Kassio Nunes Marques said at a press conference on Sunday afternoon that the election was proceeding normally, according to The Hindu. "Teams monitoring international risks have not identified any risks whatsoever," it quoted him as saying.

According to The Hindu, Justice Alexandre de Moraes has said the case against him is politically motivated.

The reports reviewed by Vocemundi do not include final, fully counted official results or turnout figures. They do not describe any formal runoff endorsements from the eliminated candidates. They also do not describe evidence supporting the alleged U.S. or Russian interference; the only assessment reported is the electoral court chief's statement that monitoring teams identified no international risks.

Analysis

The runoff on 25 October now pits a first-round leader who outperformed the polls against an incumbent who says he expected to win outright. Votes for the other right-wing candidates are described by outlets as a potential pool for Bolsonaro, though the reports describe no formal endorsements. The Guardian notes that since democracy returned in the 1980s no candidate has won the presidency without winning Minas Gerais, where Fox News reports Bolsonaro led. Lula says a two-candidate campaign will show the difference between the proposals. Before the vote, consultant Thomas Traumann, quoted by France 24, called the campaign "much more a competition of accusations than a competition of proposals."

Right-wing gains in congress, particularly the Senate, may shape the next government whoever wins. Carlos Melo, a political science professor at Insper University, told France 24 the election is "a tough battle" for the Lula campaign "and the next ones, without Lula, could be even more so". Relations with Washington remain a dividing line, with interference claims rejected by the United States. Allegations touching both camps remain unresolved in the reports, and all first-round figures are still partial counts.

Produced by the Vocemundi newsroom with AI assistance.