Israel votes in first election since 7 October attack; polls show Netanyahu trailing

Israel is holding a general election on Tuesday, 27 October 2026. It is the first since the Hamas-led attack of 7 October 2023. Since then, Israel has fought in Gaza and in a wider regional conflict that has included Lebanon and Iran.

Benjamin Netanyahu, Israel's longest-serving prime minister, is seeking another term. His principal challenger is Gadi Eisenkot, a former military chief who leads the Yashar party.

Recent opinion polls cited by NPR show Netanyahu trailing Eisenkot in the race for prime minister. According to The Hindu, most polls expect Likud's tally to fall from the 32 seats it won in 2022, while Yashar could become the largest single party. However, the polls suggest that neither Netanyahu's camp nor the Eisenkot-led opposition is assured of 61 seats. That is the minimum needed for a coalition in the 120-seat Knesset. The reports reviewed by Vocemundi do not include specific poll figures, pollster names or seat projections.

Eisenkot and most major predominantly Jewish parties have been reluctant to rely on Arab parties, including Ra'am. This could leave the anti-Netanyahu camp short of a majority. Netanyahu's coalition has included far-right parties led by Itamar Ben-Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich, as well as ultra-Orthodox parties.

According to NPR, about 1,200 people were killed and 251 were taken hostage in the 7 October attack. NPR reports that Yashar is a new center-right party and that this is Eisenkot's first run for prime minister. His son Gal, a soldier, was killed in Gaza. NPR also reports that Eisenkot has pledged not to join a Netanyahu-led government, that President Trump recently endorsed Netanyahu, and that Netanyahu remains on trial for corruption.

According to The Hindu, United Torah Judaism left the coalition last year and could back Netanyahu after the vote. The Hindu says the president usually invites the largest party's leader to form a government, typically within 28 days.

A TASS headline, crediting an unnamed agency, says Netanyahu failed to convince Trump to strike Iran before the election. The other reports do not describe this claim.

What each side says

Netanyahu says the corruption charges are politically motivated. He argues that military strength and his relationship with Trump have improved Israel's position, and that only his government can guarantee its security. According to NPR, confronting Iran is central to his campaign.

Eisenkot and other opposition leaders say they would quickly set up a state commission of inquiry into the 7 October failures. NPR reports Netanyahu has resisted such calls. Eisenkot says he would expand military service to more ultra-Orthodox Jews and supports an independent judiciary. According to The Hindu, he pledges to end the "forever wars".

Ra'am says it is willing to work with Jewish parties in exchange for policies addressing Arab communities' problems. Netanyahu's far-right partners are campaigning on limiting the courts' power.

Analysis

Polls in the reports reviewed by Vocemundi point to a possible change in the largest party, but not necessarily in government. The outcome may depend less on first place than on coalition-building. If Yashar leads but its allies stay reluctant to rely on Arab parties, the opposition could struggle to reach 61 seats. United Torah Judaism's choice could also matter for Netanyahu's path. Another scenario is a prolonged, inconclusive negotiation. Official results will show which path, if any, is viable. This assessment favors no party.

Produced by the Vocemundi newsroom with AI assistance.