US adds 29,000 jobs in September, below forecasts; unemployment rises to 4.2%

The US economy added 29,000 jobs in September, according to the Labor Department's employment report released on Friday, 2 October. The unemployment rate rose to 4.2%, up 0.1 percentage point from 4.1%.

The result was below economists' expectations. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast 90,000 jobs, according to Al Jazeera and the South China Morning Post (SCMP). The reports reviewed by Vocemundi do not include the text of the Labor Department release itself.

Earlier months were revised down. August's gain was cut from 162,000 to 133,000, and July was revised to a loss of 10,000 jobs. Together the revisions removed 60,000 jobs from the initial reports, according to the Guardian.

Healthcare added 17,000 jobs, the largest share of September's gains. The financial sector lost jobs. Average hourly earnings grew 3%, the slowest pace in about five years. According to Al Jazeera, construction added 11,000 jobs and manufacturing 9,000.

This was the final monthly jobs report before the midterm elections on 3 November. ADP's private payroll report, released earlier in the week, showed private employers added 90,000 jobs.

The Federal Reserve raised interest rates last month for the first time in three years, citing higher prices, according to the Guardian. Its next policy meeting is on 27–28 October, Al Jazeera reported. Citing CME FedWatch, Al Jazeera put the chance of the Fed holding rates in the 3.75–4.00% range at 77.3%, up from 35.8% a week earlier.

What is disputed

Forecasts differ. Al Jazeera also cites a Dow Jones forecast of 84,000, and the Guardian says economists expected just under 70,000 without naming a survey. The reports do not explain the gap.

The cause of the weak figure is not established. Unnamed economists cited by the SCMP link it to the timing of the Labour Day holiday and seasonal-adjustment volatility, and say it likely does not signal a material shift. The BBC and the Guardian describe a cooling labour market or economy. The Guardian adds that the data still reflect an overall solid jobs market.

What each side says

• President Donald Trump: In a Truth Social post on Monday, before the release, he wrote: "The United States has the BEST Employment Numbers in HISTORY.", according to Al Jazeera. The reports do not include a White House response to the September figures.
• Kyle Moore, chief economist, The Century Foundation: In remarks provided to Al Jazeera, he said the report "shows the labour market is grinding to a halt", citing slow hiring and declining real wages. The reports do not give the real-wage data needed to assess that claim.
• Bradley Saunders, Capital Economics: The BBC quoted him as calling the figure "not disastrous". He said a drop in government roles and temporary visa policy changes weighed on growth.
• Jeffery Roach, chief economist, LPL Financial: "Given the overall softness of the labour market, the likelihood of two Fed hikes is going lower", the BBC quoted him as saying.

Analysis

The September figure lands between two pressures: the Federal Reserve's stated concern about inflation and signs of slower hiring. If the weakness reflects calendar and seasonal effects, as economists cited by the SCMP suggest, later reports could show a rebound. If it reflects broader cooling, the case for pausing rate rises may strengthen. Monthly figures are subject to revision, as July and August show, so one report settles little. Politically, the data arrive a month before the midterms, and both supporters and critics of the administration's economic record may draw on them. How voters will weigh them is not known.

Produced by the Vocemundi newsroom with AI assistance.