Shell forecasts record third-quarter refining margins of $42 a barrel, up from $24

Shell said in a trading update on Wednesday, 7 October 2026, that it expects refining margins of $42 a barrel for the third quarter of 2026 (July to September). That would be a record high. The figure compares with $24 a barrel in the second quarter. The Guardian and Reuters both reported the forecast.

Why margins rose, according to the reports

The Guardian and Reuters both link the rise to the Middle East conflict. They say it has tightened fuel supplies and pushed up prices for refined fuels. Reuters' headline refers to an "Iran war". The Guardian also cites war damage to refineries in Russia. This is the outlets' explanation. The reports reviewed by Vocemundi do not include Shell's own wording on the cause.

According to The Guardian, the previous record margin for petroleum products was about $28 a barrel. It was set in the early months of the Russia-Ukraine war. The reports do not say whether that figure uses the same measure as Shell's forecast.

Market background

The Guardian reported that oil prices fell from a 2026 peak above $115 a barrel in spring to about $100, as Gulf oil exports partially recovered. It said Brent crude averaged $85.60 a barrel in the third quarter, compared with $97.05 in the second quarter and $68.14 a year earlier. The reports do not explain the reference period for the "about $100" figure. According to The Guardian, the diesel premium over the global oil benchmark rose above $100 a barrel for the first time.

Shell's wider position

According to The Guardian, Shell made a profit of almost $10bn (£7.5bn) in the second quarter, more than double the figure a year earlier. Its share price reached a record £36.23 at the end of September, the paper said. The Guardian also reported that severe damage to a key Shell gas processing facility in the Gulf cut the company's prewar gas production of 900,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day (boe/d) by a third. Shell completed its acquisition of Canada's ARC Resources in early September, the paper reported.

What each side says

Beyond the margin forecast, Shell expects third-quarter gas production of about 740,000 to 780,000 boe/d following the ARC deal, according to The Guardian. Its previous forecast was 570,000 to 630,000.

TotalEnergies chief executive Patrick Pouyanné spoke at an industry conference in London this week, according to The Guardian, which quoted him as saying: "We're doing really well by being integrated. Integration means your refineries in Europe, which you thought were liabilities, are suddenly becoming goldmines."

What the reports do not include

The reports do not quote Shell's update directly or explain how Shell calculates its refining margin. They do not identify the damaged Gulf facility. They do not say when Shell will publish full third-quarter results. Reuters' coverage reviewed by Vocemundi was a short summary, so most details rest on The Guardian alone.

Analysis

The forecast indicates that, according to the reports, refiners may be gaining from fuel supply disruption even as crude prices have eased from their spring peak. Higher refined fuel prices could affect households and businesses that depend on diesel and petrol. Several scenarios are possible. If Gulf exports keep recovering and damaged refineries return to service, margins could narrow. If disruption continues, elevated margins could persist. Shell's full third-quarter results, and its own explanation of the drivers, would help show how much of the rise reflects conflict-related disruption and how much reflects other factors. Because many details rest on a single outlet, further independent reporting would add clarity.

Produced by the Vocemundi newsroom with AI assistance.