Markets forecast: 80% chance the Bank of England raises rates to 4% on 5 November
Three MPC members already voted to hike in September and inflation is climbing. Our dated forecast and what could still change it.
The question: Will the Bank of England raise Bank Rate above 3.75% at its announcement on 5 November 2026?
Our forecast: 80% · Resolves: 5 November 2026, 12:00 GMT · Source of resolution: Bank of England, Bank Rate
The Bank of England is more likely than not to raise interest rates on 5 November. Vocemundi puts the chance of a rise from 3.75% at 80%.
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Markets forecast: 62% chance spot Brent stays above $110 at the end of November
Physical oil trades about $20 above futures as Gulf shipping stays under attack. Our dated forecast on the spot price.