Markets forecast: 72% chance the Fed holds rates on 28 October
US inflation ran hot in September, but the Fed only raised rates six weeks ago. Our dated forecast and the reasoning behind it.
The question: Will the Federal Reserve leave its target range unchanged at 3.75%-4.00% at the 27-28 October 2026 meeting?
Our forecast: 72% · Resolves: 28 October 2026, 14:00 ET · Source of resolution: Federal Reserve FOMC statement
The Federal Reserve is more likely than not to keep rates unchanged at 3.75%-4.00% on 28 October. Vocemundi puts the chance of a hold at 72%.
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