Exit polls show Eisenkot-led opposition narrowly ahead of Netanyahu bloc in Israeli election

Exit polls from Israel's general election on Tuesday gave the opposition bloc led by Gadi Eisenkot a narrow lead over Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's bloc. The Guardian, France 24 and Daily Sabah all reported the projections.

Netanyahu's Likud was projected to be the largest single party in the Knesset. The Guardian said it "could still be" the strongest single party.

Arab-majority parties made significant gains. The two Arab-majority lists were projected to win 17 to 18 seats combined in the 120-member Knesset, up from 10. The Guardian described them as Palestinian parties. Turnout was the highest in decades. Anadolu Agency said it was the highest since 1999.

These are projections only. The reports reviewed by Vocemundi do not include official or partial vote counts, or the polls' margins of error.

Reported details

According to Daily Sabah, Channels 11, 12 and 13 projected 52 to 53 seats for the opposition bloc and around 50 for Netanyahu's bloc. They projected 24 or 25 seats for Likud. According to The Guardian, most estimates give Ra'am, led by Mansour Abbas, seven seats. They give the Joint List 10 or more.

Daily Sabah reported that about 7.3 million people were eligible to vote. It said turnout was nearly 75% as of 20:00. It also said Likud unsuccessfully asked to keep polls open past 22:00 (2000 GMT).

According to The Guardian, President Isaac Herzog would decide whom to ask first to form a government if actual results confirm the exit polls. A candidate who fails within six weeks would see the task passed on. Netanyahu's coalition would remain in a caretaker role during the process.

Daily Sabah quoted Dean Livne, acting director general of the Central Elections Committee, as saying police had "caught individuals who tried to bribe voters". He said this happened near their homes, not at polling stations. He called it a localised case under investigation. The Democrats, a party in Eisenkot's bloc, said police arrested a man with a knife who moved threateningly towards its leader, Yair Golan, in Tel Aviv. The reports do not include a police statement on the incident.

What each side says

According to The Guardian, Eisenkot called the exit polls a victory for "Israel’s Zionist national majority". The Guardian reported that he has set four conditions for the Joint List. They include recognising Israel as a Jewish and democratic state and denouncing Hamas as a terrorist organisation. The Guardian quoted Amjad Shbita, general secretary of Hadash, the Joint List's biggest faction, as saying: "Laying down conditions won’t work with the Joint List." According to The Guardian, Abbas said his priority was to "bring down Benjamin Netanyahu, Smotrich, and Ben Gvir in this election".

According to Daily Sabah, Netanyahu charged that Israeli Arabs were out to "steal the election". The opposition charged that he was looking for pretexts to challenge the results.

Analysis

The exit polls point to a close and uncertain outcome. They are projections, not results. Only Daily Sabah names the pollsters, attributing the figures to Israeli television Channels 11, 12 and 13; the other reports do not specify their sources. Neither projected bloc total reaches a majority of 61 seats in the 120-member Knesset. This suggests coalition talks could be decisive. Arab-majority parties may hold more influence than before. However, Eisenkot's conditions and the Joint List's rejection of them point to possible friction. Herzog's choice of whom to ask first could shape the process. Official counts may also change the picture. Competing claims about the integrity of the vote could affect how any result is received.

Produced by the Vocemundi newsroom with AI assistance.